#173460 - 06/27/06 05:31 PM
Re: Extraterrestrials
[Re: The_Lightning]
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Registered: 07/17/02
Posts: 359
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I never wrote that!  "proven knowledge" never appeared in my post.
*Sigh* I never said you used the words "proven knowledge". You didn't have to. Your statement on aliens not effecting your life if their arrival was peaceful was clear enough. What's the difference?
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We are talking about the best possible proof to the general world, past and present - such as documented mass sightings, ancient texts, signals from space, visual evidence, etc.
No… YOU are talking about that, I was talking about the general possibility that aliens exist.
Scroll above. This whole thread is about the general possibility of extraterrestrial life and the evidence out there.
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Even if they came in peace your life will still change.
Never said it wouldn't! Just made clear I hope it would be for the best.
Yes you did. You made it clear that it would not effect you unless their arrival was not peaceful. Should I quote you again?
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But as Asmedious said- if it is true, it has no effect on our lives. When it does effect…. Well, I just hope it won't be in a negative way..
Anyway, moving on...
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#173461 - 06/27/06 05:41 PM
Re: My guesses...
[Re: Discipline]
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CoS Member
Registered: 09/09/02
Posts: 1473
Loc: Chicago, IL USA
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I have done enough reading on Sagan and on this theory. I looked at both of the opposing sides. I have made my conclusion based off research of some fine data.
Interesting. Might I ask for more detail on your data and your conclusion? (You've got me genuinely curious here; I promise I'm not just trying to draw you out so I can deliver a Scientific Smackdown.)
On matters astronomical, I like to think I'm pretty well-read for a non-professional, but I've never gotten deeply into things like archaeology. And so if I'm missing any pieces of this puzzle, I'd like to know.
-Chess
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#173465 - 06/27/06 07:08 PM
Re: My guesses...
[Re: S_Magazine]
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Registered: 03/30/05
Posts: 326
Loc: Israel
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I'm going to have to do some checking on how long it takes for the Moon to revolve around the Earth.
29.5 days (709 hours).
As in months. (Well, without taking into the whole calendar
issue with the sun...)
I guess that makes your speculation a bit... off... 
Unless I've misread you, and you meant the time it takes
the moon to appear in the sky. And that's a changing
timeframe since it depends on the sun's location.
If you meant the time it takes for a "day" to manifest on the
moon... well... it doesn't. It has a "dark side" for a reason.
Edited by pitzi_83 (06/27/06 07:14 PM)
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#173466 - 06/27/06 07:35 PM
Re: My guesses...
[Re: pitzi_83]
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CoS Priest
Registered: 06/28/01
Posts: 10087
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If you meant the time it takes for a "day" to manifest on the moon... well... it doesn't. It has a "dark side" for a reasonNot true. The moon has a side that never faces earth, but that side is not any darker than the near side (if anything it's actually brighter); it regularly faces the sun, whenever the moon is on the sunny side of earth. However, the moon's rotational period does precisely match its orbital period, and therefore a lunar "day" is the same as the lunar month. Incidentally, slightly off on the orbital period as well, at least by my reckoning. The sidereal period of the moon is is 27 d 12 h 44 min; the sidereal period is the time it takes a celestial body to complete one full revolution. The synodic period is the time it takes said object to reappear at the same point in the sky, relative to the sun, as viewed from earth. The synodic period for the moon is the number you gave. Perhaps it is stickling for details, but my logic says the sidereal period is the "true" orbital period here, since the synodic period is strictly relative to earth observation. All of which leads me to conclude that most likely Magister Nemo did not mean to suggest that the human circadian rhythm when removed from natural day/night cycles is relative to the periods of the moon (har, har, har  ).
_________________________
"The devil I'll bring you," answered Hagen. "I have enough to carry with my shield and breastplate; my helm is bright, the sword is in my hand, therefore I bring you naught."
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#173468 - 06/27/06 08:01 PM
Re: Extraterrestrials
[Re: The_Lightning]
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Registered: 07/17/02
Posts: 359
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Quote:
"If it is true"= if there are currently aliens out there
"It has no effect on our lives"= in the present, as long as they don't interfere- they are not relevant to my day to day life…
I knew this is what you meant all along...I just want to know why you feel this way. You can't make a statement like that without explaining it. Even if humans just observed either primitive or intelligent alien life without interference, nothing will ever be the same again. It's interesting to know exactly how you will be exempt.
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(by "our" I meant Satanists… since we are not worshiping aliens as gods)
I know. I don't expect that kind of answer here from anyone. However, I still wouldn't be too quick to answer for everyone either. Alot of people go against everything they believe in when their lives are threatened. If aliens were strong enough to enslave humanity, would you be enslaved to save your life or would you rather let them kill you?
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#173469 - 06/27/06 08:50 PM
Re: Extraterrestrials
[Re: Carkosa]
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Registered: 05/05/06
Posts: 325
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There's actually an equation for finding out how many technologically advanced civilizations are out there. I'll sum it up from my text book. (Horizons: 6th Edition by Micheal A. Seeds.)
Nc = (N*)(fp)(nLZ)(fL)(fI)(Fs)
Nc is the number of communicative civilizations.
N* is the average number of stars in a galaxy.
fp is the probability that a star has planets.
nLZ is the average number of planets suitably placed in the "life zone"
fL is the probability that life will originate if conditions are suitable.
fI is the probability that intelligent life will develop.
Fs is the fraction of a star's life during which a civilization is communicative.
A little side note on what a "life zone" is. A life zone is a region around a star in which it is not too hot or too cold for life to develop and survive. Now my favorite part, number crunching. I'll use the most pessimistic values for all of the above variables.
N* = (2)(10^11)
fP = 0.01
nLZ = 0.01
fL = 0.01
fI = 0.01
Fs = 10^-8
Plugging these in gives a value of (2)(10^-5) communicative civilizations per galaxy, or 1 per 50,000 galaxies.
This doesn't seem like a lot. However, the one thing that most people fail to grasp is the shear size of the universe. There are an estimated 100 BILLION galaxies. That would mean that there are 2,000,000 communicative civilizations in existance right now, and that's the minimum value. Of course, if there's only 1 civ per 50,000 galaxies, then the odds are that we will never make contact with one or even know that they exist. So, is there intelligent life elsewhere? Statistically speaking, it's very, very likely. Will we ever communicate with them or be visited by them? Hard to tell, but probably not.
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#173470 - 06/27/06 10:09 PM
Re: Extraterrestrials
[Re: ModernTantalus]
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Registered: 07/17/02
Posts: 359
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If there's only 1 civ per 50,000 galaxies, then the odds are that we will never make contact with one or even know that they exist. So, is there intelligent life elsewhere? Statistically speaking, it's very, very likely. Will we ever communicate with them or be visited by them? Hard to tell, but probably not.
Going by these statistics, the possibility of communicating with aliens does seem very hopeless if Earth is the only planet in The Milky Way or other nearby galaxies that sustains life.  Unless there is intelligent life somewhere close by in our galaxy. I think chances are very good. 
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#173471 - 06/27/06 10:45 PM
Re: My guesses...
[Re: Chess]
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CoS Warlock
Registered: 08/25/03
Posts: 6796
Loc: Forever West
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Not a problem, Chess.
I will PM you later with the material.
I am sure it has been provided around here before, especially from Magister Nemo.
Edited by Discipline (06/28/06 12:39 AM)
_________________________
"I've learned . . . that life is like a roll of toilet paper. The closer it gets to the end, the faster it goes." ~Andy Rooney
"At last I shall have time to devote myself seriously and freely to the destruction of all my former opinions." ~Descartes
“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.” ~Richard Feynman
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#173472 - 06/27/06 11:57 PM
Re: My guesses...
[Re: Hagen von Tronje]
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Registered: 03/30/05
Posts: 326
Loc: Israel
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Bah, My imagination was running low on logic.
For some reason, I thought the moon wasn't rotating.
After thinking it over, if it wasn't rotating... there wouldn't be
a "dark" side.
What a weird feature (The rotation and orbit match)...
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#173473 - 06/28/06 12:12 AM
Re: Here are one or two. More downstairs.
[Re: Nemo]
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CoS Member
Registered: 05/05/04
Posts: 798
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(1) The circadian "day" of a human being when placed in a mineshaft for a few weeks is not that of the 24 hour earth day. What planet day does it precisely match?
From what I read, I'd say Mars. 25.1 hours seemed to be the average.
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