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#310350 - 02/28/08 01:32 PM Re: Debate on Evolution [Re: Bill_M]
FalloutGod Offline
Intellectual Black Hole

Registered: 02/11/08
Posts: 566
When I read your posts I feel all warm and fuzzy inside. \:\) Thanks for helping clarify. You have a way with words and detail that I seem to lack.

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#310408 - 02/28/08 03:45 PM Re: Necessity? [Re: Bill_M]
JayLucif Offline

CoS Member

Registered: 11/09/02
Posts: 1705
Loc: Helheim
 Originally Posted By: Bill_M

"We've all heard that a million monkeys banging on a million typewriters will eventually reproduce the entire works of Shakespeare. Now, thanks to the Internet, we know this is not true." - Robert Wilensky


This statement should be engraved into stone and placed at every location of importance in the world. This just says it all when it comes to some of the things I have witnessed on the internet over the years.
_________________________
------------------------------------------------------------

Freedom, baby is never having to say you're sorry. Guilt is like a bag of fuckin' bricks. All ya gotta do is set it down. John Milton - The Devil's Advocate!

I'm gonna pull the whole thing down. I'm gonna bring the whole fuckin' diseased, corrupt temple down on your head. It's gonna be biblical. Clyde Shelton - Law Abiding Citizen!


------------------------------------------------------------

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#310413 - 02/28/08 04:05 PM Re: Necessity? [Re: JayLucif]
Bill_M Offline
CoS Reverend

Registered: 07/28/01
Posts: 11560
Loc: New England, USA
 Originally Posted By: FalloutGod
When I read your posts I feel all warm and fuzzy inside. \:\) Thanks for helping clarify. You have a way with words and detail that I seem to lack.

Thank you. Glad you enjoy my posts.

 Originally Posted By: JayLucif
This just says it all when it comes to some of the things I have witnessed on the internet over the years.

I remember first seeing it in a fellow COS member's signature, some time in the late 90s. I had to do a little searching to get the exact quote and who said it through.
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Reverend Bill M.

http://www.devilsmischief.com: Carnal Comedy Clips, Netherworld Novelty Numbers,
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#310546 - 02/28/08 10:16 PM Re: Necessity? [Re: Bill_M]
Discipline Offline
CoS Warlock

Registered: 08/25/03
Posts: 6796
Loc: Forever West
Considering I just took a probability class.

P(Head at least once in two flips) = ?

S= {HH, HT, TH, TT}

P(Head at least once in two flips) = 1/4+1/4+1/4+0/4= 3/4

S(for three flips) = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}

The common probability problem with a fair coin flip.

Sorry, I got exicted over the math.
_________________________
"I've learned . . . that life is like a roll of toilet paper. The closer it gets to the end, the faster it goes." ~Andy Rooney

"At last I shall have time to devote myself seriously and freely to the destruction of all my former opinions." ~Descartes

“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.” ~Richard Feynman

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#310550 - 02/28/08 10:29 PM Re: Debate on Evolution [Re: Bill_M]
Discipline Offline
CoS Warlock

Registered: 08/25/03
Posts: 6796
Loc: Forever West
I took a gene/cell biology class at my university. The professor was discussing the Hox genes that are seen in all animals. She then asked the class if the Hox gene gave credence to the concept to a common origin for most life. Fifty percent of the class raised their hands in favor of it providing good evidence for such, 15 percent raised their hands for "I don't know" category, while the remaining 35 percent raised their hands saying it did not lead to any evidence for a common ancestor.

This is not a religious school. It is actually a high ranking science university. So, I found it a bit interesting (although small) case study of people's devotion to their predispositions. Of course the class was for non-biology majors, but still.
_________________________
"I've learned . . . that life is like a roll of toilet paper. The closer it gets to the end, the faster it goes." ~Andy Rooney

"At last I shall have time to devote myself seriously and freely to the destruction of all my former opinions." ~Descartes

“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.” ~Richard Feynman

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#310697 - 02/29/08 12:39 PM Re: Necessity? [Re: Discipline]
Bill_M Offline
CoS Reverend

Registered: 07/28/01
Posts: 11560
Loc: New England, USA
 Originally Posted By: Discipline
Sorry, I got exicted over the math.

So did I, which was probably why my reply was long. \:\)

In general, the proability after n trials is ((2^n) - 1)/(2^n). I think the simplest way to calculate it is
P(heads showing up at least once in n trials) =
1 - P(tails showing up on all n trials) =
1 - P(tails on first trial)*P(tails on second trial)*(etc.) =
1 - (1/2)(1/2)...(1/2) =
1 - (1/2)^n =
(2^n - 1) / 2^n
_________________________
Reverend Bill M.

http://www.devilsmischief.com: Carnal Comedy Clips, Netherworld Novelty Numbers,
New hour every week. Download the mp3 now!

http://www.aplaceformystuff.org: Tales of Combat Clutter and other Adventures

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#310940 - 03/01/08 09:42 AM Re: Necessity? [Re: Bill_M]
John.Doe Offline


Registered: 06/02/07
Posts: 62
Loc: Germany
 Originally Posted By: Bill_M
Letters from the monkey are assumed to come out randomly and independent of previous letters typed. This is hardly how DNA components come together, nor how natural selection is driven.


Well, to my understanding randomly is exactly the way DNA components come together. There are just other factors determining if the new (random) combination is successfully reproducing or not...

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#310941 - 03/01/08 09:49 AM Re: Necessity? [Re: JayLucif]
John.Doe Offline


Registered: 06/02/07
Posts: 62
Loc: Germany
 Originally Posted By: JayLucif
 Originally Posted By: Bill_M

"We've all heard that a million monkeys banging on a million typewriters will eventually reproduce the entire works of Shakespeare. Now, thanks to the Internet, we know this is not true." - Robert Wilensky


This statement should be engraved into stone and placed at every location of importance in the world. This just says it all when it comes to some of the things I have witnessed on the internet over the years.


I like what the quote says about the internet. But it has hardly any significance for the discussion, because a 20 or 30 years old internet seems to be a very poor measurement stick for something happening given endless time.


Edited by John.Doe (03/01/08 01:20 PM)
Edit Reason: typo

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#310942 - 03/01/08 09:59 AM Re: Necessity? [Re: John.Doe]
JayLucif Offline

CoS Member

Registered: 11/09/02
Posts: 1705
Loc: Helheim
Hum really, wow massive amounts of information is at the fingers tips but very few actually use it to educate one's self. So I won't hold my breath with all the masses of monkeys beating on keyboards to do much of any real world worth, at least on the basic individual level that is. Just the short amount of time for me is enough thank you, without layered and watched over forums likes this fine example of one we are using right now, these boards would eventually generate into pointlessness. Though the monkeys can pound away, I in the meantime will be watching eye inspiring sunrises and sunsets, sipping my favorite beverage, reading a favorite written piece of literature, while the misdirected pound away never ever getting IT in the first place.
_________________________
------------------------------------------------------------

Freedom, baby is never having to say you're sorry. Guilt is like a bag of fuckin' bricks. All ya gotta do is set it down. John Milton - The Devil's Advocate!

I'm gonna pull the whole thing down. I'm gonna bring the whole fuckin' diseased, corrupt temple down on your head. It's gonna be biblical. Clyde Shelton - Law Abiding Citizen!


------------------------------------------------------------

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#310989 - 03/01/08 01:00 PM Re: Necessity? [Re: John.Doe]
Bill_M Offline
CoS Reverend

Registered: 07/28/01
Posts: 11560
Loc: New England, USA
 Originally Posted By: John.Doe
Well, to my understanding randomly is exactly the way DNA components come together. There are just other factors determining if the new (random) combination is successfully reproducing or not...

The point is that creationists' "reasoning", as reflected in this analogy, is wrong. You can't look at a strand of DNA and say "Well a DNA strand is a precise combination of N nucleotides, of which there are 4 different varieties, therefore the odds of this particular strand coming together is 1/(4^N). This is an astronomically small number, therefore GodDidIt." That would be like looking at a page from the monkey's typewriter and saying "Look, the monkey typed 'TSDQQ'. The chances of getting that exact sequence are 1 in 11,881,376. Wow!"

Mutations are largely random, but as you point out their selection is anything BUT random. The DNA in my body now is not the result of nucelotides getting together randomly. It's the result of how my parents' DNA copied, which is a result of how their parents' DNA was copied, and so on back to much more simpler DNA and (a billion years before that) the natural formation of simple amino acids.
_________________________
Reverend Bill M.

http://www.devilsmischief.com: Carnal Comedy Clips, Netherworld Novelty Numbers,
New hour every week. Download the mp3 now!

http://www.aplaceformystuff.org: Tales of Combat Clutter and other Adventures

(Wenn du Google's Übersetzer verwendest, um diese Worte zu lesen, dann bist du ein Arschloch.)

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#310992 - 03/01/08 01:01 PM Re: Necessity? [Re: John.Doe]
Bill_M Offline
CoS Reverend

Registered: 07/28/01
Posts: 11560
Loc: New England, USA
 Originally Posted By: John.Doe
I like what the quote says about the internet. But it has hardly any significance for the discussion, because a 20 or 30 years old internet seems to be a very poor measurment stick for something happening given endless time.

I see that the humor of the quote has flown right over your head.
_________________________
Reverend Bill M.

http://www.devilsmischief.com: Carnal Comedy Clips, Netherworld Novelty Numbers,
New hour every week. Download the mp3 now!

http://www.aplaceformystuff.org: Tales of Combat Clutter and other Adventures

(Wenn du Google's Übersetzer verwendest, um diese Worte zu lesen, dann bist du ein Arschloch.)

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#311006 - 03/01/08 01:27 PM Re: Necessity? [Re: Bill_M]
John.Doe Offline


Registered: 06/02/07
Posts: 62
Loc: Germany
It seems that we are pretty much in agreement then. Arrangements of DNA take place randomly, but looking at species today only shows you the successful variants, those who made it through the selection process.

Regarding your quote: I did get the humor and find it pretty hilarious. I only pointed out its insignificance for the discussion about evolution because, in my opinion, it was taken too seriously...

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#311008 - 03/01/08 01:31 PM Re: Necessity? [Re: John.Doe]
Discipline Offline
CoS Warlock

Registered: 08/25/03
Posts: 6796
Loc: Forever West
DNA is far less random than most would assume. You have ATGC bases for coding. A attaches to T and G attaches to C. That is fairly well structured. It is true that when a zygote is produce the two different sets of chromosomes tend to scramble a bit, but the general locations and structure of the DNA sequence remains the same.

I don’t think that leads to any sort of superior creator or anything that silly. However, I do think it leads to a certain idea that evolution or even biology is far more discriminating and rigid in its designs than most give it credit. Even by the selection of reproduction, useful mutations, and competition, biology has developed its own form of organization.
_________________________
"I've learned . . . that life is like a roll of toilet paper. The closer it gets to the end, the faster it goes." ~Andy Rooney

"At last I shall have time to devote myself seriously and freely to the destruction of all my former opinions." ~Descartes

“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.” ~Richard Feynman

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#311836 - 03/04/08 07:52 AM Re: Necessity? [Re: Bill_M]
Auge Offline


Registered: 12/06/07
Posts: 163
Loc: Germany
Interesting discussion going on here.

I'd only like to add, that to calculate a probability at all, one needs a priori knowledge on the object one is talking about. I can only calculate the probability of x tails in a row because I know how a coin looks like, and that there is only heads and tails and so on (simplified).

What's the probability for gods existence, then? What's the probability that god works exactly how he is depicted in the bilble? Hell, who knows? Any speculation on god is therefore quite useless.
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Alle Wesen bisher schufen etwas über sich hinaus: und ihr wollt die Ebbe dieser großen Flut sein und lieber noch zum Tiere zurückgehn, als den Menschen überwinden?
- Friedrich Nietzsche

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